Republic of Serbia natural and other disaster risk assessment: Methodology

Abstract

One of the most serious challenges of modern society is the lack of awareness of the presence of various dangers and possibilities of influencing them. Each community takes various measures and activities to assess the degree of their vulnerability tending to a state free from danger. As the most complex part, risk assessment requires a systematic approach to identifying and analyzing hazards based on the application of appropriate criteria for calculating the level of risk presented in this paper. Each risk assessment methodology must be adapted to the context of risk assessment. For this reason, the methodology for risk assessment of natural and other disasters is an attempt to establish basic requirements and criteria for risk assessment in the field of emergency management. Due to the complexity and unpredictability of natural and technological hazards that threaten people, material resources and the environment, risk assessment methodology includes risk mapping and assessment of combinations of risks - multi-risk, as well as a cross-border dimension of risk.

Jedan od najozbiljnijih izazova savremenog društva jeste nedostatak svesti o prisustvu različitih opasnosti i mogućnostima uticaja na njih. U težnji ka stanju oslobođenom opasnosti svaka društvena zajednica preduzima razne mere i aktivnosti da proceni stepen svoje ugroženosti. Kao najsloženiji deo procene ugroženosti, procena rizika zahteva sistematičan pristup u identifikovanju i analizi opasnosti, zasnovan na primeni odgovarajućih kriterijuma za izračunavanje nivoa rizika prikazanih u ovom radu. Svaka metodologija za procenu rizika mora se prilagoditi kontekstu procene rizika. Iz tog razloga, metodologija za procenu rizika od elementarnih nepogoda i drugih nesreća predstavlja pokušaj da se uspostave osnovni zahtevi i kriterijumi za procenu rizika u sferi upravljanja u vanrednim situacijama. Zbog kompleksnosti i nepredvidivosti prirodnih i tehničko-tehnoloških opasnosti koje ugrožavaju ljude, materijalna dobra i životnu sredinu, metodologijom procene rizika je obuhvaćena i izrada mapa rizika, procena kombinacija rizika - multirizika, kao i prekogranična dimenzija rizika.