Fundamental and technical analysis as a means of efficient portfolio management of securities

Abstract

The subject of the research is to analyze the methods of fundamental and technical analysis of HoV on the companies quoted in the Belex index 15. The aim of the research is to create a pool of specific information, tested in practice, on the possibilities of improving efficient portfolio management with a special focus on optimal selection of techniques and the method of fundamental and technical analysis of HoV. The fundamental analysis of securities is a method of examining economic, political and social indicators of national economy in an attempt to forecast the future trends on the financial market. Differently from the fundamental method, the technical analysis examines historical and actual data on prices and the volume aimed at forecasting the market activities in the future period. Therefore, historical data on prices make the basis and are most frequently used in technical analysis. There are numerous methods of both fundamental analysis and technical analysis and this paper suggests that the use of solely one technique cannot provide results that are satisfactory and sufficient for managing a portfolio of securities efficiently. Methodology used in the research comprises methods of analysis, synthesis, explorative and inductive- deductive techniques. Due to numerous information that could be obtained by using all of the methods and techniques, this paper presents an optimal combination of indicators of technical and fundamental analysis, as a means to efficient portfolio management. In order to apply an optimal set of fundamental and technical analysis indicators, in this paper we have used a sample of companies extracted from the Index basket that comprises 15 most liquid shares traded on the Belgrade Stock Exchange (BSE) in addition to the Belex15 Index, which describes price movements of the most liquid Serbian shares, and which is positioned as the leading index of the Belgrade Stock Exchange and calculated in real time. The research results will be useful to the academic community for further research in the field, as well as to institutional and individual investors in the function of creating a set of instruments geared towards efficient trading with HoV.

Predmet istraživanja u radu je analiziranje metoda fundamentalne i tehničke analize HoV na primeru kompanija koje se kotiraju u okviru indeksa Belex 15. Cilj istraživanja jeste dolaženje do niza konkretnih informacija, u praksi testiranih, o mogućnostima unapređenja efikasnog upravljanja portfoliom sa posebnim fokusom na optimalni odabir tehnika i metoda fundamentalne i tehničke analize HoV. Fundamentalna analiza HoV bavi se u osnovi izučavanjem ekonomskih, političkih i socijalnih pokazatelja nacionalne ekonomije sa ciljem da se predvide kretanja na finansijskom tržištu u budućnosti. Za razliku od fundamentalne, tehnička analiza proučava istorijske i aktuelne podatke o cenama i obimu sa namerom da se predvide aktivnosti na tržištu u budućem periodu. Dakle, istorijski podaci o cenama su osnova i najčešće korišćeni podaci tehničke analize. Metodologija korišćena u istraživanju obuhvata metode analize, sinteze, eksplorativne i induktivno-deduktivne tehnike. Zbog velikog broja informacija koje se mogu dobiti korišćenjem svih metoda i tehnika, u radu ćemo prikazati najoptimalniju kombinaciju pokazatelja fundamentalne i tehničke analize koji će biti u funkciji efikasnog upravljanja portfoliom. Kao uzorak za primenu optimalne grupe pokazatelja fundamentalne i tehničke analize koristićemo korpu od 15 najlikvidnijih akcija na Beogradskoj berzi i indeks Belex 15 pozicioniran kao vodeći indeks Beogradske berze koji opisuje kretanja cena najlikvidnijih srpskih akcija i koji se računa u realnom vremenu. Rezultati istraživanja biće korisni kako akademskoj zajednici za dalja istraživanja u oblasti, tako i institucionalnim i individualnim investitorima u funkciji kreiranja seta instrumenata usmerenih ka efikasnom trgovanju sa HoV.