Fear of crime in Belgrade: Testing a socio-demographic and social-psychological factors model

Abstract

Despite a wealth of research practice, the conceptualization of fear of crime and the ways in which this fear is measured remain the subject of intense theoretical debate in criminological and sociological disciplines. Taking as a starting point the need for a theoretical explanation of fear of crime and the existing research which has confirmed the relevance of the model which integrates socio-demographic and social-psychological factors, a study was conducted in order to examine the predictive capabilities of these factors and compare the results with those of similar studies in the region. The analysis was based on the data obtained in the course of the regional research project 'Fear of Crime in Large Cities', carried out in 2009 in the capital cities of former Yugoslav republics on a multistage random sample using the method of in-home interview. A hierarchical multiple regression analysis was applied on a sample of 397 adult respondents residing in urban parts of Belgrade in order to draw conclusions on how the variables of the integrated model can help explain the differences in the level of fear of crime. Fear of crime, as a dependent variable, was measured using six vignettes after the reliability and unidimensionality of the construct was confirmed. The results of the regression analysis showed that the proposed model was able to account for 42% of the differences in fear of crime. With regard to the socio-demographic variables (introduced in the first step and accounting for 31% of the variance), it was determined that women express the greatest fear of crime as they avoid being alone in their neighbourhoods at night, visit nearby friends less frequently and believe that the streets, shops, and woods in their immediate surroundings are not safe. Regarding the social-psychological variables (which accounted for the additional 11% of the variance), a higher level of fear was found in persons who believe that other people pose a threat to them or their property, imagine that someone would obstructed their path on their way home, think they are not capable of defending themselves from potential assailants or distrust people, both those they know and those they do not. A comparison with other research in the region showed that a larger number of social-psychological variables proved to be predictive for the residents of Belgrade while there were no significant differences in terms of the socio-demographic variables.

Uprkos postojanju već bogate istraživačke prakse, konceptualizacija straha od kriminala, kao i načini njegovog merenja, još uvek jesu predmet intenzivnih teorijskih rasprava u kriminološkim i sociološkim disciplinama. Polazeći od potrebe teorijskog objašnjenja straha od kriminala, te uvažavanja istraživačkih nalaza o značajnom doprinosu modela koji objedinjuje socio-demografske i socijalno-psihološke faktore, postavljeno je istraživanje sa ciljem ispitivanja prediktivne sposobnosti ovih faktora, ali i poređenja dobijenih rezultata sa nalazima sličnih studija iz regiona. U analizi su korišćeni podaci iz regionalnog istraživačkog projekta 'Strah od kriminala u velikim gradovima', koji je, tokom 2009. godine, sproveden u glavnim gradovima bivših jugoslovenskih republika, na slučajnom višetapnom uzorku, uz primenu metode intervjuisanja u domaćinstvima. Za potrebe ovog rada, a u cilju izvođenja zaključaka o doprinosu varijabli objedinjenog modela u objašnjenju razlika u nivou straha od kriminala, primenjena je, na uzorku od 397 punoletnih ispitanika koji žive u urbanim delovima grada Beograda, hijerarhijska višestruka regresiona analiza. Strah od kriminala, kao zavisna varijabla, meren je preko šest hipotetičkih situacija, uz prethodnu potvrdu pouzdanosti i jednodimezionalnosti konstrukta. Rezultati regresione analize pokazali su da se 42% razlika u strahu od kriminala može objasniti predloženim modelom. U pogledu socio-demografskih varijabli (koje su unete u prvom koraku i objasnile 31% varijanse) utvrđeno je da veći strah od kriminala imaju osobe ženskog pola, koje izbegavaju da se noću same kreću po susedstvu, ređe posećuju prijatelje u susedstvu i misle da ulice, prodavnice i šume u neposrednom okriženju nisu sigurne. Kada su u pitanju socijalno-psihološke varijable (koje su objasnile dodatnih 11% varijanse), konstatovano je da viši nivo straha od kriminala imaju osobe koje misle da su one same ili njihova imovina ugroženi od strane drugih ljudi, koje zamišljaju da ih neko može presresti na putu do kuće, koje misle da nisu sposobne da se same odbrane od eventualnog napadača, te nemaju poverenja u druge ljude, kako nepoznate tako i poznate. U poređenju sa rezultatima drugih istraživanja u regionu, zapaženo je da se veći broj varijabli socijalno-psihološke prirode pokazuje prediktivnim za stanovnike Beograda, dok u pogledu socio-demografskih varijabli nema značajnijih razlika.