'Post-cold war' changes in security and strategic concepts of the Russian Federation

Abstract

In the last twenty years the world has undergone serious changes, unfortunately not in positive direction. The collapse of the bipolar system and the establishment of one bloc hegemony - NATO headed by the USA, has not only failed to establish more stable and secure international relations, but, on the contrary, it has corresponded with the greatest insecurity and uncertainty of the mankind ever since World War II till the present day. After the 'counter-balance' disappeared, there has been open political, economic, even direct military, interference by the Alliance states in the sovereignty of many countries. Consequently, the world's conflicting potential has largely increased. Apart from the threats present from earlier, the contemporary world is faced with a series of new, formerly unknown or marginal, ones. The most notable among them are: uncontrolled escalation of armed conflicts; international terrorism; proliferation of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction; expansion of drugs trafficking; illegal cross-border migrations; human trafficking and trafficking in human organs; piracy; criminalization of different areas of living; etc. The economic and financial crises have additionally warned the world of the limitedness of natural resources and, in the most serious form, posed the issue of the fight for preservation, or conquest of areas rich in raw minerals. Apart from the current courses of action in the fight for control over the natural resources, both new methods of action and new areas of contest are emerging (Arctic, Antarctic ...; above and under the Earth's surface; on the sea, and under the sea bottom), over which the interests of great powers will be increasingly conflicting. Michael Klare, the author of well-known books 'Blood and Oil' and 'Resource Wars', convincingly evokes a growing hunger for resources by the picturesque title of his latest book 'Race for What's Left: Global Scramble for the World's Last Resources'. For success in this new competition in strength and skills, new strategic concepts are required. Some have already been created and preliminarily tested; others are being prepared for implementation and corrected 'on the go' based on the performance of already proved solutions; still others are being hurriedly shaped. Understandably, along with this, what actual and potential rivals do related to this, or what their activities suggest, is watched closely.

Za poslednjih 20 godina svet se ozbiljno promenio i to, nažalost, ne u pozitivnom smeru. Rušenje bipolarnog sistema i uspostavljanje hegemonije jednog bloka - NATO na čelu sa SAD, ne samo da nije dovelo do uspostavljanja stabilnijih i bezbednijih međunarodnih odnosa, već je naprotiv, korespondiralo sa najvećom nesigurnošću i neizvesnošću ljudskog roda od vremena Drugog svetskog rata do danas. Posle nestanka 'kontrabalansa', došlo je do otvorenog političkog, ekonomskog, pa i direktnog vojnog mešanja zemalja Alijanse u suverenitet mnogih zemalja. Kao rezultat ovakvog stanja, konfliktni potencijal u svetu znatno se povećao. Pored od ranije prisutnih pretnji, savremeni svet suočava se sa nizom novih, nekada nepoznatim ili marginalnim. Među njima su najznačajnije: nekontrolisana eskalacija oružanih konflikata; međunarodni terorizam; rasprostiranje atomskog i drugog naoružanja za masovno uništavanje; bujanje trgovine narkoticima; nelegalne preko-granične migracije; trgovina ljudima i ljudskim organima; piratstvo; kriminalizacija različitih sfera života itd. Ekonomska i finansijska kriza dodatno su opomenule svet na limitiranost prirodnih resursa i, u najozbiljnijoj formi, postavile problem borbe za očuvanje, odnosno osvajanje prostora bogatih sirovinama. U borbi za kontrolu nad prirodnim resursima, pored dosadašnjih, pojavljuju se, kako nove metode delovanja, tako i nova područja nadmetanja (Arktik, Antarktik, ...; na zemlji i ispod zemljine površine; na moru i ispod morskog dna), oko kojih će se u narednom periodu sve otvorenije sukobljavati interesi vodećih svetskih sila. Narastajuću glad za resursima, Majk Kler (Michael Klare), autor dobro poznatih dela 'Krv i nafta' (Blood and Oil) i 'Ratovi zbor resursa' (Resource Wars), uverljivo dočarava slikovitim nazivom svoje najnovije knjige 'Trka za onim što je preostalo' (Race for what's Left: Global Scramble for the World's Last Resources). Za uspešnost u tom novom odmeravanju snaga i umešnosti neophodni su novi strategijski koncepti. Neki su već kreirani i preliminarno testirani; drugi se pripremaju za implementaciju i u 'hodu' koriguju na osnovu učinka već oprobanih rešenja; treći se ubrzano formiraju. Pri tome se, razumljivo, pomno prati ono što u vezi s tim čine, odnosno što svojim delovanjem nagoveštavaju aktuelni i potencijalni rivali.