Risks of non-military security threats relevant for the third mission of the Army of Serbia

Abstract

Serbia and its Army are undergoing a process of reassessment of functional requirements and capabilities to respond to non-military threats to the security. In line with national, European, and Euro-Atlantic security priorities, preventive use of forces is an imperative of modern use of military resources in facing the assessed threats. The paper does not discuss separately non-military threats to the security of the Republic of Serbia as contained in strategic and doctrinal documents, or assess the risks from individual threats, which are the subject of more comprehensive future analyses and research. The authors above all point to the importance of multi-risk assessment and the analysis of scenarios of preventive actions within the scope of the third mission of the Army, taking into consideration the specificities of the Republic of Serbia. As regards the assumed risks of natural disasters, terrorism and insurgencies, the next task is to analyze functional requirements and capabilities of the Army of Serbia using the GAP analysis and other methods and techniques of risk assessment as bases of decision-making process.

Srbija i njena vojska nalaze se u postupku preisipitivanja funkcionalnih potreba i mogućnosti odgovora na nevojne pretnje bezbednosti. U skladu sa nacionalnim, evropskim i evroa-tlantskim bezbednosnim prioritetima, preventivna upotreba snaga je imperativ savremene upotrebe vojnih resursa u suočavanju sa procenjenim pretnjama. U radu se ne razmatraju posebno nevojne pretnje bezbednosti Republike Srbije sadržane u strateškim i doktrinarnim dokumentima, niti se procenjuju rizici od pojedinačnih pretnji, što je predmet opsežnijih budućih analiza i istraživanja. Autori, pre svega, ukazuju na značaj procene multirizika i analize scenarija za preventivno postupanje u okviru treće misije vojske i uvažavajući specifičnosti Republike Srbije. U odnosu na pretpostavljene rizike elementarnih opasnosti, terorizma i pobunjeničkih dejstava, predstoji zadatak da se analiziraju funkcionalne potrebe i mogućnosti Vojske Srbije primenom GAP analize i drugih metoda i tehnika za procenu rizika kao osnove u procesu odlučivanja.